Each NBA playoff series is a distinct event, with no real point of continuity between the end of one and the start of another.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, for example, knocked off the defending champion Denver Nuggets, but that didn’t automatically make them kings of the hill; a series against the Dallas Mavericks in the next round posed an entirely different set of challenges, and the Timberwolves roster was much less able to handle them. Likewise, the valiant fight the Indiana Pacers put up against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals tells us almost nothing about what might happen to Boston in a series against Dallas; aside from their propensity to hire Rick Carlisle, Indiana and Dallas could hardly be less similar.
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This is a crucial bit of information to keep in the coming days as we look at every possible angle in our extended hiatus before the NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks begin on June 6. Dallas has won six of its last seven games, capped by its elimination. of Minnesota on Thursday, while Boston won 12 of 14 by a double-digit scoring margin.
However, using those games as a predictive point for what might happen in the NBA Finals is a fatal flaw: the matchup for both teams will be completely different from what they faced in the previous round. In that sense, it’s probably good that Dallas and Boston have a few days off to recalibrate. The formula for winning the next round will be radically different.
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Take the Celtics, for example, who just finished a series against one of the most extreme teams in basketball and now have to adapt to a very different type of team on both ends. The Pacers’ defensive approach, in particular, is almost 180 degrees from that of Dallas. The Pacers gave up the fewest 3-point attempts this season and were more than willing to allow drives to the basket as long as they closed down the 3-point line.
While they did this imperfectly against the Celtics – Boston still launched 43 threes per game in the conference finals, right on par with their season totals – it’s still a radically different approach than what Dallas did in their threes playoff rounds. The Mavs tried to protect the rim at all costs with rim protectors Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, holding opponents to just 50.2% 2-point shooting in the playoffs entering Game 5 against Minnesota.
The Mavs didn’t give up a ton of 3-pointers overall, but there was a certain type they were willing to allow: pick-and-pop 3-pointers from opposing centers. The Clippers and Wolves didn’t have the starting personnel to hurt them here, but Dallas let Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams shoot for the Thunder (42 attempts in six games), while Minnesota backup Naz Reid ripped 25 3-point attempts points in 132 minutes in the conference finals.
It goes without saying that this is a highly questionable strategy to pursue against the Celtics if Kristaps Porziņģis is healthy (he is expected to return for the NBA Finals). Porziņģis has shot 37.5% from 3 this season on more than six attempts per game, with many of his tries coming from several yards beyond the 3-point line. After all, Boston big man Al Horford earned 41.9%.
Dallas isn’t the only team that has faced this problem. Keeping rim protectors close to the rim has been a vexing issue for Boston’s opponents throughout the season, which has seen multiple inventive but unsuccessful solutions. Golden State, for example, tried to put Draymond Green on Jaylen Brown, keep Green in the paint and challenge Brown to shoot 3s in a March game. Brown hit five 3-pointers in the first seven minutes and was on pace to break Wilt Chamberlain’s record before the Warriors reconsidered.
I was at that game, and my article from that weekend delves into the unique dilemmas presented by Boston’s superior shooting at each position. The short version: Teams that strive to take 3s and live with attacks to the basket, like Indiana, are the only ones that have a chance against the Celtics. Sure, the Pacers gave up points, but they also beat Boston twice in the regular season and had them forfeit Game 1 of the conference finals before fate intervened… with a late 3-pointer.
Dallas, by contrast, was a middling team at preventing opposing 3s and played that way again in the playoffs. The Mavs’ big puzzle is figuring out how to twist a defensive strategy that was nearly optimal for playing the Clippers, Thunder and Wolves and adapt it to play against a very different Boston team. Recent events do not bode well on this front; When the Mavs marched into Boston with all their new players in March, they lost 138-110, with Boston shooting 21 of 43 on 3s.
The Celtics, however, have some adjustments to make. While Indiana ran the ball down their throats every possible opportunity with whoever had the rock, Dallas plays a much slower, heliocentric style. Yes, the Mavs will run opportunistically, but compared to playing the Pacers, it will feel like going from a techno rave to Gregorian chants.
Additionally, Dallas’ man is perhaps the best offensive player in the league, and he’s operating against a defense that essentially has one weakness: not being able to switch five positions. We saw how that worked for Minnesota, the league’s top defense. Can the Celtics really survive a cover series against 40+ minutes of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving? Or do they need to feel uncomfortable?
While the Celtics have more options on the roster (they could perhaps put Porziņģis over Derrick Jones Jr. to replace Dallas’ pick-and-roll game with Lively and Gafford, for example) and two All-Defense guards in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, Dončić, you saw and understood every coverage.
Of course, there’s a lot more to reveal here: Porziņģis and Irving’s revenge series! Luka’s first NBA finals! Jayson Tatum’s Chance at Redemption! Reflections on the Grant Williams era! We’ll have plenty of time to get everything right, but it almost seems like a relief that these teams have a interlude before this final round. Each will need one for a complete tactical revamp.
Mandatory reading
(Photo by Luka Dončić and Al Horford: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
