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« After four years of uninterrupted violence, Moyen-Orient has become a delirium of political conversations »

Posted on June 22, 2023

Les Américains argue with the Iranians, those who dialogue with the Saudis who hold talks with the Israelis regardless of whether the Chinese offer their good services to the Palestinians. Se l’on en croit l’Ecclésiaste, il ya un temps pour tout et, après quarante années de violentes uninterruppues, the Moyen-Orient s’adonne à une frenésie de conversaciones politiques. “The whole world talks to the whole world”dit le général Oren Setter, un des stratèges de l’état-major israeli.

On neutral ground, sans doute à Oman, les Etats-Unis « speak » with Iran

Les deux parties n’avaient plus de contact depuis l’échec en 2022 d’un dialog sur le nucléaire mené, à Vienne, grâce à une médiation européenne. The Islamic Republic, multiplying the name and the power of its centrifuges, produces aujourd’hui de l’uranium enriched to 60%. Il lui faudrait deux semanes à un mois avant d’arriver aux 90% nécessaires pour un uranium de qualité militaire. Ce délai était d’un avec les limits impostées par l’accord de Vienne de juillet 2015. But this accord – concluded between Iran and the five “official” nuclear plants – was rejected by Donald Trump in 2018. Unilateral decision que Téhéran a interpretée comme l’autorisant à s’affranchir de toute contrainte.

Toutefois, the passage from 60% to 90% will not pass without negative consequences for Iran: return of sanctions, see possible Israeli raids or Israeli-American bombings; Probable negative reaction from China and Russia, the two protectors of the UN Islamic Republic. As for Joe Biden’s administration, you are not rewarded with a crisis in the Gulf that is the background of your priorities – Ukraine and China. De part et d’autre, su un intérêt à s’entendre.

The possession of a nucléaire opérationnelle weapon supposed of other bonds than the enrichment of uranium, rappelle le général Oren Setter in the newspaper Haaretz (June 16) and Ambassador Michel Duclos in they are the latest article from the Institut Montaigne. “Militarization” prendrait sans doute deux années supplémentaires.

Read also the analysis: Article reserved for us Nucléaire Iranien: l’impossible rupture autour d’un deal pourtant moribond

A en croire la presse israélienne et américaine – notamment Haaretz et le New York Times –, Américains et Iraniens auraient concluded a marché. On ne parle pas d’accord formel, encore moins de traité, mais d’un “entendement” réciproque.

Iran undertakes non pas franchir le seuil des 60 %. Il rapprendrait sa coopération avec les inspecteurs de l’ONU et il interdirait à ses milices di lui, en Syrie, en Irak, au Liban, de s’en prendre aux intérêts américains. Les Etats-Unis, croit savoir le New York Times, assoupliraient leur embargo sur le pétrole de la République Islamic. Those «libereraient» those billions of Iranian dollars frozen in foreign banks – this fund cannot be dépensés from the Islamic République qu’à des fins «humanitarian».

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