The PSOE would win the general election if it were held today, with 31.2% of the vote, just half a point ahead of the PP, according to the June CIS barometer, prepared after the regional and municipal elections. -M and in the following days Pedro Sánchez brought forward the elections scheduled for December to July. The body led by the socialist José Félix Tezanos, whose results are questioned by all parties (except the PSOE), indicates that Sumar would be in third position, with 14.3%, followed by Vox, which rises with 10.6% and repeats the data from May. The poll shows that the sum of the left-wing options (PSOE and Sumar) would obtain 45.5% of the citizen consensus, against the 41.4% accumulated by the right-wing bloc (PP and Vox, since Ciudadanos disappeared from Congress).
The poll, which accumulates 7,407 interviews, was prepared between May 31 and June 7, so, in theory, it includes the alleged honeymoon effect that usually increases the results of the winner and the impact of the electoral advance. The CIS study includes a sharp increase in the two main parties since May’s CIS, but also strongly supports Yolanda Díaz’s party, which already includes all coalition signatories, including Podemos. The poll does not provide any data on Ciudadanos, since he does not appear in this election, having suffered near extinction in the last election.
The CIS maintains a tie very similar to the one offered in May, with PP and PSOE in close combat. The two parties grow strongly on the barometer, even if the PP does so on a higher average. Those of Alberto Núñez Feijóo rise from 27.2% in May to 30.7% this month, that is three and a half points; but those of Pedro Sánchez go from 29.1 to 31.2%, two points more. Sumar, in third position, for his part, does not collect the entire vote of Podemos. The combined data of both formations in the May poll offered a percentage of votes for the left of the left of 18.4%, while in this June it remains at 14.3%. The fieldwork took place from 31 May to 7 June. On Friday, June 9, Podemos announced it would go with Sumar in the next general election, despite the veto imposed on Irene Montero.
The improvements that the CIS gives to PP, PSOE and Sumar contrast with the stagnation of Vox (10.6%), and the general decline in ERC vote expectations (from 2.4% to 1.8%), compared upwards by Junts (even if it does not surpass the Republicans) and that of Bildu, which goes from 0.9% in May to 1.1% in this study.
One more month, the citizens inexorably suspend the main political representatives. And again, Yolanda Díaz is the best scored (her note is 4.89), closely followed by Pedro Sánchez (4.59) and Alberto Núñez Feijóo (4.37). The last of the class continue to be, according to the CIS note, Santiago Abascal (with three nudes) and Ione Belarra (with a 3.17). In any case, Sánchez for now generates more trust than Feijóo, since 63.6% have little or nothing in the former, compared to 69.3% who say the same about Feijóo.
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CIS pollsters asked citizens when they decided to vote in May’s elections, with the apparent aim of finding out the impact of election campaigns on the final vote. So 62.7% was clear with or without a campaign, but in the 15 official days to ask for the vote, 36.8% decided on the color of the ballot. At the start of the campaign, 10% made the decision; in the last week of the campaign, 14.1% chose a party to vote for; but it is that on the day of reflection, on the eve of the nomination, 3.8% decided and on the day of the vote, 8.9% of the citizens made their political choice. And the thing is even more curious: 14.1% changed party at least once in the 15 days of the last stretch towards the elections. In the last elections, those last days were marked by the controversies of Bildu (which included 44 former ETA members in his lists) and by the buying and selling of votes in Melilla and Mojácar.
The previous barometer, released on 17 May, indicated that the PSOE would win the elections if they were held that month, with 29.1% of the vote, closely followed by the PP, which would have obtained 27.2%. Sumar, the project led by Vice President Yolanda Díaz, has become, according to last month’s study, the third political force, overtaking Vox, which until now held that position in the polls. The barometer reflected, with 28-M just weeks away, how the gap between socialists and populars was the smallest in 2023 in terms of vote estimate and that it had only dropped to half a point in the direct vote intention category. In this, those of Sánchez obtained 21.1% of the votes (they lost 1.1 points) while those of Feijóo rose to 20.7%, only half a point behind the PSOE, again according to the CIS, whose data they are routinely questioned as being manipulated by the PP, Vox and Podemos.
Days later, on the 22nd, the CIS released a lightning poll for the administrative elections, where the Socialists lost one and a half points (from 31.7% of the 11 to 30.2%), a number of votes gathered in large he starts from the ultra-party Abascal party (+1.2 points, from 6.8% to 8%), and to a lesser extent the PP (from 27.3% to 27.9%). In that study, the PP surpassed the PSOE in the direct vote for the first time this year and obtained 21% compared to 20.7% for Pedro Sánchez.
However, the big poll came on 28-M, where the People’s Party won the municipal elections with 31.53% of the votes, compared to 28.12% collected by the Socialists. Vox ranked third, while Ciudadanos and Podemos were nearly extinct in municipalities. The consequence has been that the right has considerably extended its municipal power, while Feijóo’s party and Abascal’s party are forging alliances in key municipalities, such as Burgos or Toledo. In the case of the autonomous communities, the PSOE easily managed to keep the community of Castilla y León, with final difficulties it kept Asturias, but the combined results of the PP and Vox expelled the left bloc from Aragón, Extremadura, La Rioja and , above all, from the Valencian Community. In the latter region, after the last elections, the first society of popular and voxists and Vox was formed (before they were the same party).