Trade Details: Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Tyler Glasnow and OF Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for OF Jonny Deluca and RHP Ryan Pepiot
The same day they introduced Shohei Ohtani as a Dodger, the team made a big trade, agreeing to a deal that would add right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from the Rays in exchange for two young players, right-hander Ryan Pepiot and winger Jonny Deluca, who haven’t even reached officiating and have five and six years of team control, respectively. (The deal is contingent on Glasnow and the Dodgers working out a contract extension, but that’s not part of the trade itself, as the Dodgers will acquire only one year of Glasnow’s service life and the $25 million he’s owed for 2024.)
Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, which he hasn’t been for any significant period of time in his major league career. He’s struck out a third of the batters he’s faced in 2023 following his return from Tommy John surgery, and his 2.91 FIP would have ranked second in the AL had he qualified, between league leader Sonny Gray and Kevin Gausman. Glasnow was even better in 2021 before the surgery, with a 2.77 FIP and a 2.66 ERA that both would have led the league had he qualified, though he threw just 88 innings earlier that year of the injury.
Glasnow stands 6-foot-8 and makes incredible use of his height, with one of the best extensions in front of any pitcher in baseball at 7.5 feet. He sits at 96-97 mph with two plus breaking balls in his slider and curve. The slider has a lot more power—Statcast has him throwing several at 93 and change, which is illegal in several states—while the curveball has a higher-than-average vertical break he plays because of that extension. He barely uses a changeup and hasn’t shown any platoon splits over the course of his career, but he had some issues with lefties last season, something worth keeping an eye on in case anything materially changed after the intervention.
The bigger issue, of course, is durability: His 120-inning total in 2023 was actually a career high in the majors, and the most he’s pitched in any season since 2016, when he had his best professional showing. of 140 innings and reached his major. – debut championship. The Dodgers need quality in their rotation, but they also need quantity, with so many question marks between inexperience and guys coming off injuries. Glasnow gives them quality, but I have no idea how many innings they can rely on him pitching.
Margot could be a candidate to platoon with Jason Heyward. (Orlando Ramirez/USA Today)
Manuel Margot is a high-contact hitter with very little power whose value comes largely from his defense anywhere in the outfield, but since a knee injury in 2022, that defensive value hasn’t shown. From 2017-21, he was 9-12 points above average (per Statcast) in each full season, but dropped to -1 in 2022 and 1 last season. He definitely has lost a step or two, a decline that was already underway even before the knee injury, so I’m not that blood that will bounce all the way back on defense.
If the Dodgers want him to platoon with Jason Heyward in right field, facing a left-handed pitcher (against whom he hit .281/.341/.420 for his career, versus .244/.294/.370 against righties ), he will have value. I’m not sure they can count on him to do more. He has a one-year, $10 million contract and a $12 million mutual option for 2025.
I mentioned in my article on the Shohei Ohtani/Decoy contract that Ryan Pepiot “was outstanding in five games as a starter in September, throwing more strikes than he ever had in pro ball, although four were against some of the scoring offenses lowest in baseball. “That’s obviously still true, and he won’t face as many low-scoring offenses while pitching in the AL East, which had four teams above league average in runs per game, and the fifth just added Juan Freaking Soto.
Pepiot has at least a 70-grade changeup and, after a disastrous debut in 2022 in which he lacked command and struggled to get to the changeup or finish it, he picked it up again last year and his fastball has played better because of it . The changeup has a late-moving pitch, especially downfield, and hitters struggle to distinguish it from his mid-90s four-seamer because it releases the ball so far on the front side. His slider improved to become a viable weapon against right-handed hitters, though in 2022 the story was that overuse of the slider ruined his delivery and compromised his command and changeup. None of that was evident in 2023, once he returned from a four-month layoff due to an oblique injury; he threw strikes in the minors and did so in the majors, with all three pitches proving effective during his time in the major leagues.
There’s definitely a risk here, because his even-average control history is largely limited to 2023, but the Rays like to take risks on guys with this kind of upside (e.g., a 70 grade or better) and have also a good track record. in launch development. He fits perfectly into their rotation in the spot vacated by Glasnow.
Jonny Deluca, no relation to NWH manager Whitey, was a 25th-round pick by Oregon in 2019, debuted last year at age 24 and showed more speed and reasonable field recognition for a rookie, albeit with less power than he had shown in the low minors. Before last season I wrote that he was more of a 55 runner and could move to the corner, but the speed and defense he showed in his cup of coffee last summer make the center field seem more viable.
Deluca was a strong fastball hitter in the minors, and his issues with breaking have spread to the big leagues as well, which isn’t surprising but is obviously his biggest risk factor. He also hasn’t had much hard contact in the majors in a small sample size, but that’s out of character with his time in the minors, where at least he’s earned enough to project to average power. The Rays gave Jose Siri and his obnoxious .267 OBP the majority of playing time in center last year, as he’s an elite defender with more power, and he still managed to be worth 2.7 fWAR , which irritates me to a level I can’t even explain. A .267 OBP is a felony against a misdemeanor. Either way, maybe Deluca can unseat him at some point, this year or when Siri becomes arbitration-eligible in 2025.
If you get the sense that I have reservations about everyone in this deal, you’re right, and I think this poses a lot more risk for the Dodgers because the stakes are higher for them. It’s World Series or bust for Los Angeles this year, and they just added one of the best starters in baseball who is also one of the most unreliable (at least from an innings pitched perspective). There is a small but real chance that Pepiot gives the Rays more in 2023 than Glasnow gives the Dodgers, if Pepiot’s apparent strides last year hold up for a full season in the majors.
There’s also a chance it works out for everyone: Glasnow has his first full season as a starter, the Dodgers sprinkle their pixie dust on Margot and he and Heyward combine for 5 hits in right field, while Pepiot becomes the starter in mid-rotation and Deluca develops into a regular. I simply see a wide range of possible outcomes for three players, all except Margot, and this increases the risk for everyone involved.
(Top photo by Glasnow: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)