Quick Analysis | Heat campaign and without Sánchez in Andalusia
That of July 23 will go down in the history of Andalusian electoral campaigns as one of the rarest, because it seems that there hasn’t been one. In the streets there are posters, but few and in very selected places. Nor have large rallies, program distributions, campaign walks, or candidates’ daily press conferences dominated. Obviously there have never been elections even in the month of July. Since 1994, the Andalusian electoral law has prohibited convening them in the period from 1 July to 31 August, because “they may impede the exercise of the right to political participation”. It’s not that the Andalusian lawmakers were wise, it’s that they know where they live and that it’s hot, very hot. And in this month of July, several Andalusian provinces have been on red or orange alert for many days due to high temperatures.
In the 15 congressional elections held since 1977, the average turnout in Andalusia has been 71.8%. The minimum was recorded in the last days of November 2019 (65.9%) and the maximum in October 1982 (78.7%). We’ll see what happens today.
The campaign design of the socialist candidate for the presidency of the government, Pedro Sánchez, based on interviews and debates, has bypassed Andalusia, the community that contributes the largest number of deputies to Congress (61). There was no surprise in the direction of the Andalusian PSOE because they knew the route in advance. Sánchez was in the pre-campaign in Dos Hermanas (Seville), the PSOE’s talisman city, on June 18, and that was the best.
The Minister of Finance, Deputy Secretary General of the PSOE and candidate for Seville, María Jesús Montero, has been the main reference of the government and the party (up to nine acts) in which there are two other ministers as candidates: Luis Planas, for Córdoba, and Fernando Grande Marlaska, for Cadiz. Former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero also helped in the final stretch in which he asked “to review the Andalusia-PSOE duo”. The socialists have combined the defense of their management with the message of the setback for the alleged alliance of PP and Vox. That message backfired in the June 2022 regional election. Juan Manuel Moreno won an outright majority, and that victory was fueled by 15.6 percent of former socialist voters, according to the CIS.
In contrast, the popular Alberto Núñez Feijóo has been three times (Seville, Cádiz and Málaga) with the intention of overtaking the PSOE in votes and seats in Spain’s most populous community. It has only happened twice since 1977: in 2011 and 2016. Feijóo tries to “make a Juanma Moreno”, who had three campaigns in one year and in that time achieved two resounding victories in Andalusia (autonomous and municipal).
Yolanda Díaz, candidate of Sumar, has just visited Andalusia as labor minister during the legislature and in these 15 days she has been a double in Seville and Cadiz. The Vox candidate, Santiago Abascal, made his debut in El Ejido (Almería) and passed through Malaga.