The president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, is in political difficulty. He is under pressure from the United States to hold free and fair elections after years of authoritarian rule or face the reinstatement of crippling economic sanctions. But analysts say he is unlikely to give up power and would most likely lose in credible elections.
Now, Maduro has reignited a border dispute with a much smaller neighboring country, in a move that appears driven, at least in part, by a desire to divert attention from his political problems at home by stoking nationalist fervor.
Maduro says Guyana’s vast, oil-rich Essequibo region, a country of about 800,000, is part of Venezuela, a nation of about 28 million, and will hold a nonbinding referendum on Sunday to ask voters whether they support the government’s proposal. position.
Maduro’s argument is based on what many Venezuelans consider an illegitimate agreement dating back to the 19th century that gave the Essequibo region to Guyana.
While most countries have accepted that Essequibo belongs to Guyana, the issue remains a point of contention for many Venezuelans and the referendum will likely pass, experts say.
President Irfaan Ali of Guyana said “Essequibo is ours, every square inch of it” and pledged to defend it.
For Maduro, stoking a geopolitical crisis gives him a way to shift the internal conversation at a time when many Venezuelans are pushing for an election that could challenge his grip on power.
“Maduro needs to wrap himself in the flag for electoral reasons, and obviously a territorial dispute with a neighbor is the perfect excuse,” said Phil Gunson, an International Crisis Group analyst based in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas.
Venezuelan groups and activists opposing Maduro held primaries in October without any official support from the government to choose a candidate to run in elections due to be held next year. More than 2.4 million Venezuelans voted, a high number that suggests how engaged voters might be in a general election.
But since then, the Maduro government has questioned the legitimacy of the vote and legally targeted its organizers, raising concerns that Maduro will resist any serious challenge to his decades-long mandate even as his country continues to suffer from sanctions international.
A large turnout is expected on Sunday as, among other factors, public sector employees are expected to vote. A higher turnout than in the opposition primaries could strengthen Maduro’s position, analysts say.
“It is intended to give the impression that the government can mobilize people in a way that the opposition cannot,” Gunson said.
Essequibo, a region slightly larger than the state of Georgia, is a tropical jungle rich in oil, as well as minerals and timber. In recent years, many people have migrated there from Venezuela and Brazil to benefit from the illegal mining industry.
Guyana has increased its police presence along the Venezuelan border, while Brazil has sent troops to the region. So far, Venezuela has not deployed additional forces to the border.
But some of the referendum’s language says the government must exercise full sovereignty over the Essequibo, and some analysts say its approval could give Maduro motivation to launch hostilities.
“Once the referendum is approved, you give a blank check to Maduro so that he can at any time, at his discretion, initiate or have any type of border clash of a military character in the territory of Essequibo,” declared Rocío San Miguel. defense analyst in Venezuela who studies the military.
And if Maduro believed he could be defeated in the election, he could “activate the war button,” San Miguel said, and suspend the election by declaring a national emergency.
The modern dispute over Essequibo dates back to around 1899, when a tribunal was held in Paris to determine the boundaries of what was then called British Guiana. Venezuelans say the area was part of Venezuela when it was part of the Spanish Empire.
But Venezuelans did not take part in the tribunal and considered its decision null and void.
In 1966, the governments of Great Britain, British Guiana, and Venezuela signed the Geneva Agreement to resolve the border dispute. According to the agreement, in the event of a stalemate, the dispute would be referred to the United Nations.
Since then, the region has been led by an independent Guyana but claimed by Venezuela, although tensions eased under Hugo Chávez, then Venezuelan president, who suggested he was not interested in pursuing the issue when he visited Guyana in 2004 .
But that was before the oil boom transformed Guyana’s economy into one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Some of that oil is found in the Essequibo region, which makes up about two-thirds of the country’s territory.
In 2020 the dispute was addressed by the United Nations’ highest court, the International Court of Justice, where it is still pending. But Maduro said the court has no jurisdiction over the matter.
The court on Friday ordered Venezuela to refrain from taking any action that would alter Guyana’s control over Essequibo. But the Court did not prohibit Venezuela from holding the referendum, as Guyana had requested.
Even if the referendum passes, reviving Venezuela’s claim to the territory would most likely provide a temporary distraction and not boost Maduro’s popularity, analysts said.
“People need practical solutions to their daily needs: food, medicine, education, hospital services and roads,” Gunson said. “They don’t need to wave flags. “This is not going to put food on the table.”
Some analysts have drawn parallels with Argentina’s former president, Leopoldo Galtieri, who led the country’s military dictatorship and ordered the invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982 at a time of waning popularity. He was defeated by the British army, who removed him from power.
The people who live in Essequibo are largely English-speaking, identify culturally as Guyanese and say they want to remain part of Guyana, the only government they have ever known. Even when it was part of the Spanish Empire, it was considered a remote and underdeveloped territory.
Many residents said they appreciated the tranquility of life in Essequibo and the economic benefits resulting from the oil boom and feared they would have to leave their homes if Venezuela gained sovereignty over the region.
“If we lose Essequibo, where will we live?” said Abdul Rashid, a taxi driver who said he was “happy and proud” with how the Guyana government is handling the situation.
Bob Mahadeo, a photographer and video editor, said he didn’t understand how Venezuela could claim the land when it had been developed by Guyana.
“This is our land,” he said. “Guyanese really need to stand up and fight against these people, because this is our hard work and our profit here.”
Anselm Gibbs and Flavia Milhorance contributed to the reporting.