For more than a month, smoke signals from Rafael Nadal’s court have kept the tennis world on edge, triggering predictions of everything from a triumphant spring on the clay of Paris to whether he would never play another match official after yet another hip injury in Australia in January.
The only thing that seemed clear was that the 22-time Grand Slam champion would prioritize the clay-court season in Europe this spring. Nadal said it in January, when he returned after a year’s absence due to hip surgery.
Of course, he was happy to return and compete in Australia, where he won the first Grand Slam of the year in 2022, but he was particularly focused on being in top form – or, at least, as close to it as possible. at this point – in three months when the clay court tournaments will begin in earnest.
That was partly why he missed the Australian Open after suffering a small muscle tear near his hip three matches after his last return. Logic suggested that Nadal would wait until tennis returned to organic surfaces that are much less taxing on the body and where an aging, injury-prone player like Nadal, who is 37 and plays the more physical style of tennis, would the best chance of staying healthy.
Few were surprised when he announced on social media this month that he was withdrawing from a hard court tournament in Doha. It was the second sentence of that post that caught some by surprise.
“I will focus on continuing to work to be ready for the performance in Las Vegas and the extraordinary tournament in Indian Wells,” Nadal wrote on Valentine’s Day.
That would be an MGM Resorts exhibition match against 20-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz this weekend in Las Vegas, which will be streamed on Netflix, and then the BNP Paribas Open in nearby Indian Wells, Calif., starting next week.
This seemed strange to some. However, he had plenty of time to withdraw from those events and spend a few more weeks in Spain preparing for the land.
And then, last week, Novak Djokovic posted a photo of him and Nadal on the same flight as Nadal headed to the United States. “Let’s go,” Djokovic wrote. The game continues, at least in theory.
Great company traveling to USA 🇺🇸 😎💪🎾 @Rafael Nadal #idemooo #Come on @atptour #Tennis Paradise pic.twitter.com/UDB13mp4Ux
— Novak Djokovic (@DjokerNole) February 23, 2024
The question, however, is: why?
“If he’s fit, he wants to play,” his longtime spokesman, Benito Perez-Barbadillo, said Monday. “He IS a tennis player and he wants to play in the biggest tournaments. And he loves Indian Wells.”
As Patrick McEnroe, a commentator and former player who called the match against Alcaraz, pointed out, Nadal often thrives on the slow hard courts of Indian Wells, where he has won three times and reached the final on two other occasions.
Injuries during performances are extremely rare, but an exhibition and hardcourt tournament in March, even one that Nadal loves as much as Indian Wells, will increase his chances of being fit enough to compete for the French Open title in May and June, where he won 14 times and there’s a statue of him whipping the whip-shaped forehand outside the main stadium? In recent years, Nadal has shut down after Indian Wells for about three weeks to begin honing his timing and conditioning for two months of clay-court tennis, where the timing and style of play are markedly different from those on the courts in concrete.
Welcome back, champion 👋
📷: @Rafael Nadal | #Tennis Paradise pic.twitter.com/oVdoxv5JH0
— BNP Paribas Open (@BNPPARIBASOPEN) February 26, 2024
The elephant in the room here is money.
It is always inconvenient to count other people’s money, to suggest what should be enough. This is especially the case for professional athletes, whose career is generally more than 40 years and who have become accustomed to a certain lifestyle.
That said, Nadal has won more than $134 million in prize money during his 20-plus year career. He has collected tens of millions, perhaps more, in endorsements and appearance fees. The terms of his deal with MGM and MGM’s deal with Netflix are not public, but he is likely to collect at least $1 million for the Alcaraz game, given how much he and other players of his caliber have earned playing similar events
Nadal will not receive compensation for playing Indian Wells, as it is a mandatory tournament for healthy players. He has other incentives. Larry Ellison, the billionaire founder of Oracle and owner of the tournament, has become a friend and hosts Nadal in his private resort.
There, Nadal can dedicate himself to his other passion: golf. He has been known to play 18 or even 36 holes a day during his time in the desert and has already been to the courses in California.
(Quality Sports Images/Getty Images)
It is a beautiful life. The question is whether she is risking the clay season, where she probably has the best chance of winning a 23rd Grand Slam singles title. Nadal would probably try to dismiss that thought or anything that would suggest he is some kind of clay specialist.
“I think it’s good,” said Paul Annacone, a longtime coach (Roger Federer, Taylor Fritz) and commentator. «He’s already in California practicing, acclimating. So the only problem is if it’s not 100%. Then don’t go. But I don’t think he would be here in California if he wasn’t close to 100% and ready for Indian Wells.”
Days after withdrawing from Doha, Nadal posted a video of himself practicing slow service returns with the caption “Work in progress.” There have been other videos since he arrived at Indian Wells, but no footage approaching anything intense.
All of this has only added to the larger mystery surrounding when Nadal might quit for good. Last year, not long after hip surgery, he suggested that 2024 would be his final season and would serve as a farewell tour of sorts as he visited the tournaments and cities that meant he more for him throughout his career.
Then he showed flashes of himself during his three matches in Australia and got a taste of the competition he craves. Since then he has not committed to any specific timetable, insisting that he is taking it day by day.
The Olympic Games tournament will take place this summer at Roland Garros, home of the French Open. There had been speculation that it might serve as his exit. Then he signed a deal to serve as an ambassador to the Saudi Arabian tennis federation and to play in an exhibition in Riyadh in October with Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune. That setup would seem like an odd choice for his final games.
The Davis Cup final will take place in Spain a month later. Maybe then? That is, assuming he can make it that far without another serious injury.
For now, for better or worse, he has a big payday in Las Vegas and a tough tournament on the course (and a lot of golf) in the California desert to focus on.
(Top photo: William West/AFP via Getty Images)