Ecuadorians will vote in a referendum on Sunday that could give their center-right president more powers to fight drug-related gang violence and also gauge how he fares in his re-election bid next year.
President Daniel Noboa, the 36-year-old heir to a banana empire, took office in November after an election season centered on drug-related gang violence, which has emerged over the past five years at levels not seen in decades.
In January, he declared an “internal armed conflict” and ordered the military to “neutralize” around two dozen gangs in the country, which the government labeled “terrorist organizations.” The drastic move allowed soldiers to patrol streets and prisons, many of which have come under gang control.
Two weeks ago, Noboa took the extraordinary step of arresting an Ecuadorian politician who was facing a prison sentence and who had taken refuge in the Mexican embassy in Quito, in what experts said was a violation of an international treaty on the sanctity of office diplomats. The move drew widespread condemnation across the region.
Noboa defended the embassy raid, saying the politician, a former vice president, was not entitled to protection because he was a convicted criminal.
Taken together, the army deployment and forced arrest of the former vice president should have demonstrated that Noboa is tough on crime and impunity, political analysts say. Sunday’s vote will gauge how strongly voters support his aggressive stance.
Although Noboa has high approval ratings, some human rights groups have criticized his government’s harsh response as going too far and leading to abuses against people in prison and civilians on the streets.
However, most Ecuadorians are willing to give up Noboa’s harsh tactics if it reduces their chances of becoming victims of crime, experts say.
“Noboa is now one of the most popular presidents in the region,” said Glaeldys González, who researches Ecuador for the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit think tank. “He is taking advantage of the levels of popularity he currently has to catapult himself into the presidential elections.”
The referendum includes 11 questions, eight of which concern safety.
The security measures would enshrine increased military presence in law, lengthen prison sentences for some crimes related to organized crime and allow the extradition of criminals convicted in Ecuador, among other changes.
A wave of violence by international crime groups and local gangs has turned the country of 17 million into a key player in the global drug trade. Tens of thousands of Ecuadorians have fled to the US-Mexico border.
In early January, the large coastal city of Guayaquil saw a turning point in the long-running security crisis: Gangs attacked the city after authorities moved to take over Ecuador’s prisons.
In response, Noboa declared a state of internal conflict and his combative strategy initially reduced violence and brought an uneasy sense of security. But the stability did not last. During this month’s Easter holidays, 137 murders, kidnappings and extortions occurred in Ecuador are increased.
The president said he had sent police officers to the Mexican embassy to arrest Jorge Glas, the former vice president who had been sentenced to prison for corruption, because Mexico had abused the immunities and privileges granted to the diplomatic mission.
But the move also sent a message in line with Noboa’s heavy-handed approach to violence and corruption.
Anyway poll show that his approval rating has decreased in recent months, is still at 74%. Most analysts expect Ecuadorians to approve the security questions on the ballot.
“There’s just so much support,” González said. “I think everyone will have strong support for ‘yes’.”
But some of the non-security questions are less popular. Hourly work contracts, currently prohibited, could be legalized. Unions say employers could use them to undermine workers’ rights and pay wages lower than the law allows.
Ecuadorians can decide on each issue separately, so even if they vote “no” on the most controversial ones, the overall result could still ensure a solid mandate for Noboa, who is expected to seek a second term in February elections.
“If there was a yes vote, a resounding ‘yes’, it would also be a way of helping the government argue that it needs more time in power to continue with these changes and these reforms in its overall fight against organized crime,” , Ms. González said.
If the security measures are approved, the findings would be binding and the national assembly would have 60 days to turn them into law.
But some analysts say the referendum would serve more as a barometer of Noboa’s popularity than an effective way to address the country’s security challenges.
“We don’t vote for the question; rather, we vote for the person who asked the question,” said Fernando Carrión, who studies violence and drug trafficking at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences, a regional research and analysis group.
He added that measures such as increasing prison sentences could exacerbate problems of overcrowding and violence in prisons.
Voters went to the polls after tumultuous weeks, but some said they were undeterred.
“I will vote ‘yes’ in this referendum because I am convinced that this is the only way for Ecuador to change and for us all to have a better future,” said Susana Chejín, 62, a resident of the southern city of Loja.
“He is making positive changes for the country, to fight crime and drug trafficking,” he said of Noboa.
Others said they believed questions about the referendum were not enough to address the country’s insecurity.
“We are still in the vicious cycle where we focus on the symptoms and not the causes,” said Juan Diego Del Pozo, 31, a photographer from Quito. “No question aims to solve structural problems, such as inequality. My vote will be a resounding “no” to every question.”
Thalie Ponce contributed reports from Guayaquil, Ecuador, and José María León Cabrera from Quito, Ecuador.