Venezuela’s vast natural wealth has once again entered Washington’s strategic calculations. Beyond oil, the country’s potential mineral resources are being framed as assets of national importance, even as experts warn that turning ambition into reality would be far more complex than political rhetoric suggests.
When Donald Trump announced that U.S. companies would be allowed to tap into Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, the spotlight swiftly broadened far beyond petroleum, and policy discussions increasingly began to encompass minerals, metals, and even rare earth elements thought to lie beneath Venezuelan territory, resources considered vital across sectors such as defense, aerospace, clean energy, and consumer technology, and now central to U.S. national security deliberations.
Yet while the idea of tapping Venezuela’s broader resource base may appear attractive on paper, specialists caution that it is fraught with uncertainty. The scale, quality and economic viability of many of these resources remain unclear, and the political, security and environmental obstacles surrounding extraction are formidable. As a result, most analysts agree that even an aggressive push by Washington would be unlikely to deliver meaningful relief to America’s strained supply chains in the near or medium term.
Broader strategic motivations extending well beyond oil
For decades, Venezuela has been synonymous with oil. Its proven crude reserves rank among the largest in the world, shaping its economy and its fraught relationship with the United States. However, recent geopolitical shifts have expanded the definition of “strategic resources” far beyond hydrocarbons. Critical minerals and rare earth elements are now seen as indispensable inputs for advanced manufacturing, renewable energy systems and military hardware.
Officials within the administration have indicated they understand Venezuela’s worth could reach further than petroleum, and Reed Blakemore of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center notes that many now recognize the nation may possess a broader spectrum of natural resources. Yet he and others stress that recognizing such potential does not automatically translate into the capacity to harness it.
The difficulties linked to mining and exporting minerals in Venezuela are, in many ways, even more formidable than those confronting the oil industry, since oil extraction benefits from existing infrastructure and well-established global markets, whereas developing the mineral sector would demand broad geological assessments, substantial financial commitments and enduring stability — requirements that Venezuela does not currently meet.
Uncertainty beneath the surface
One of the central problems facing any attempt to develop Venezuela’s mineral resources is the absence of reliable data. Years of political upheaval, economic crisis and international isolation have left large gaps in geological information. Unlike countries with transparent reporting and active exploration programs, Venezuela’s subsurface wealth is poorly mapped and often discussed in speculative terms.
The United States Geological Survey does not list Venezuela among countries with confirmed rare earth element reserves. This omission does not mean such resources are absent, but it underscores how little verified information exists. Experts believe Venezuela may host deposits of minerals such as coltan, a source of tantalum and niobium, as well as bauxite, which can yield aluminum and gallium. All of these metals are considered critical minerals by U.S. authorities.
Past Venezuelan leaders have issued bold statements about these resources; in 2009, former president Hugo Chávez publicly highlighted extensive coltan findings, presenting them as a valuable national asset. Under Nicolás Maduro, the government later created the Orinoco Mining Arc, a vast zone designated for mineral exploration and extraction. In reality, though, the initiative became closely associated with environmental harm, unlawful mining activities and the involvement of armed groups.
Security, governance and environmental risks
Mining is by nature a highly disruptive pursuit that depends on consistent governance, clear and enforceable rules, and assurances of long-term security. In Venezuela, such foundations are largely missing. Many areas thought to hold significant mineral reserves are isolated and poorly administered, leaving them exposed to unlawful activities.
Armed groups and criminal networks remain firmly embedded in illegal gold extraction in several regions of the country, as noted in numerous independent reports. With minimal oversight, these actors fuel violence, widespread deforestation and severe environmental contamination. Bringing in legitimate, large-scale mining operations under such conditions would be extremely challenging without sustained improvements in security and the enforcement of the rule of law.
Rare earth mining presents additional challenges. Extracting and processing these elements is energy-intensive and can generate hazardous waste if not properly managed. In countries with strict environmental standards, these risks translate into higher costs and longer project timelines. In Venezuela, where regulatory enforcement is weak, the environmental consequences could be severe, further complicating any attempt to attract responsible international investors.
As Blakemore has noted, even under optimistic assumptions, bringing Venezuelan minerals to global markets would be a “much more challenging story” than oil development. Without credible guarantees on safety, environmental protection and policy stability, few companies would be willing to commit the billions of dollars required for such projects.
China’s dominance in processing and refining
Even if U.S. firms managed to clear the obstacles involved in extraction, they would still face another looming bottleneck: processing. Obtaining raw materials represents only the initial phase of the supply chain, and when it comes to rare earths, the refinement and separation stages are both the most technologically demanding and the most capital‑intensive.
Here, China maintains a powerful lead. The International Energy Agency reported that, in 2024, China was responsible for over 90% of the world’s refined rare earth output. This overwhelming position stems from decades of government backing, assertive industrial strategies and relatively relaxed environmental oversight.
As Joel Dodge of the Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator has observed, China’s near-monopoly on processing confers both industrial and geopolitical leverage. Even if rare earths are mined elsewhere, they are often shipped to China for refining, reinforcing Beijing’s central role in the supply chain.
This reality complicates Washington’s strategic calculations. Securing access to raw materials in Venezuela would do little to reduce dependence on China unless parallel investments were made in domestic or allied refining capacity. Such investments would take years to materialize and face their own regulatory and environmental hurdles.
Critical minerals and national security
The United States currently designates 60 minerals as “critical” due to their importance for economic and national security. This list includes metals such as aluminum, cobalt, copper, lead and nickel, as well as 15 rare earth elements like neodymium, dysprosium and samarium. These materials are embedded in everyday technologies, from smartphones and batteries to wind turbines and electric vehicles, and are also essential for advanced weapons systems.
Despite their name, rare earth elements are not particularly scarce in the Earth’s crust. As geographer Julie Klinger has explained, the difficulty lies not in their abundance but in the complexity of extracting and refining them in an economically and environmentally sustainable way. This distinction is often lost in political discourse, leading to exaggerated expectations about the strategic value of unproven deposits.
U.S. lawmakers have grown increasingly troubled by the nation’s dependence on overseas suppliers for these materials, especially as tensions with China escalate, and efforts have emerged to bolster mining and processing within the country. Yet these domestic initiatives encounter extended timelines, local resistance and rigorous environmental assessments, so rapid outcomes remain improbable.
Venezuela’s limited role in the near future
Against this backdrop, expectations that Venezuela could emerge as a significant supplier of critical minerals appear unrealistic. Analysts at BloombergNEF and other research institutions point to a combination of factors that severely constrain the country’s prospects: outdated or nonexistent geological data, a shortage of skilled labor, entrenched organized crime, chronic underinvestment and an unpredictable policy environment.
Sung Choi of BloombergNEF has argued that, despite Venezuela’s theoretical geological potential, it is unlikely to play a meaningful role in global critical mineral markets for at least the next decade. This assessment reflects not only the technical challenges of mining, but also the broader institutional weaknesses that deter long-term investment.
For the United States, this means that ambitions to diversify supply chains cannot rely on Venezuela as a quick fix. Even if diplomatic relations were to improve and sanctions eased, the structural barriers would remain formidable.
Geopolitics versus economic reality
The renewed focus on Venezuela’s resources illustrates a recurring tension in global economic policy: the gap between geopolitical aspiration and economic feasibility. From a strategic perspective, the idea of accessing untapped minerals in the Western Hemisphere is appealing. It aligns with efforts to reduce dependence on rival powers and to secure inputs vital for future industries.
However, resource development is governed by practical realities that cannot be wished away. Mining projects require stable institutions, transparent regulations and long-term commitments from both governments and companies. They also demand social license from local communities and credible environmental safeguards.
In Venezuela’s case, decades of political turmoil have eroded these foundations. Rebuilding them would require sustained reforms that extend far beyond the scope of any single trade or energy initiative.
A sober assessment of expectations
Experts ultimately advise approaching political claims about Venezuela’s resources with care, noting that although the nation’s subterranean riches are frequently depicted as immense and potentially game‑changing, available evidence points to a much narrower reality, with oil standing as Venezuela’s most clearly identifiable asset, yet even that sector continues to encounter substantial production hurdles.
Minerals and rare earth elements introduce added complexity, given uncertain reserves, costly extraction and global supply chains controlled by dominant actors. For the United States, obtaining these resources will probably hinge more on diversified sourcing, recycling, technological advances and strengthening domestic capacity than on pushing into new frontiers within politically volatile areas.
As the global race for critical minerals intensifies, Venezuela will continue to feature in strategic discussions. Yet without profound changes on the ground, its role is likely to remain marginal. Ambition alone cannot substitute for data, stability and infrastructure — the essential ingredients of any successful resource strategy.
